Why Trump Secured a Breakthrough in Gaza But Faces Challenges Regarding Putin Over Ukraine
Reports of an impending US-Russia presidential summit have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Just days after President Trump said he intended to confer with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.
A initial meeting by the both countries' leading diplomats has been called off, too.
"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump informed reporters at the White House on a recent weekday. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I will observe what happens."
- Donald Trump says he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for Putin talks postponed
- Disappointment in Kyiv as Zelensky leaves White House empty-handed
The on-again, off-again meeting is just the latest twist in Trump's attempts to mediate an conclusion to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a subject of increased attention for the American leader after he arranged a ceasefire and prisoner exchange agreement in the Palestinian territory.
During a speech in the North African country last week to commemorate that truce deal, Trump turned to Steve Witkoff, with a new request.
"It is essential to get Russia done," he declared.
However, the conditions that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for the negotiation team may be difficult to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for nearing four years.
Less Leverage
Per the lead negotiator, the crucial element to unlocking a deal was Israel's decision to attack Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a move that angered America's Arab allies but provided the president leverage to compel Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.
Trump benefited from a long record of supporting Israel since his first term, including his decision to move the American embassy to the contested city, to alter US policy on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, in recent times, his support for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.
The American leader, actually, is better regarded among Israelis than Netanyahu – a situation that gave him special sway over the nation's head.
Combine the president's connections in politics and business to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to secure an deal.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, Trump has much less leverage. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between efforts to pressure the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.
The US leader has threatened to impose new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could disrupt the world's financial stability and intensify the conflict.
Meanwhile, the president has criticized openly Zelensky, halting briefly information exchange with the country and suspending weapon deliveries to the country - only to then back off in the face of concerned European allies who caution a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the whole area.
Trump loves to tout his skill to sit down and hammer out agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to advance the hostilities any nearer a resolution.
Putin may in fact be using Trump's desire for a settlement – and belief in direct negotiations - as a means of influencing him.
During the summer, Putin agreed to a high-level meeting in the US state just as it appeared likely that Trump would approve on congressional sanctions package backed by GOP senators. That bill was afterwards delayed.
Recently, as news emerged that the White House was considering seriously sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the Russian leader phoned Trump who then promoted the potential meeting in Budapest.
The following day, the president hosted Ukraine's leader at the White House, but left without agreements after a reportedly strained discussion.
The US leader maintained that he was not being played by the Russian president.
"You know, I have been manipulated all my life by the best of them, and I emerged really well," he said.
But the Ukrainian leader later made note of the timeline of developments.
"Once the issue of advanced weaponry became a little further away for Ukraine – for our nation – Russia quickly became less engaged in negotiations," he stated.
So, in a short period, the president has shifted from considering the idea of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to planning a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and confidentially urging Zelensky to surrender all of Donbas – even territory Russian forces has been unable to conquer.
He has finally decided on calling for a ceasefire along present frontlines – a proposal the Russian government has rejected.
On the campaign trail previously, Trump vowed that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has subsequently abandoned that pledge, saying that concluding the war is proving more difficult than he anticipated.
It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his power – and the difficulty of establishing a framework for peace when neither side desires, or is able to, give up the fight.